Crypto DCA vs. Lump Sum Investment Return Simulator

Compare one-time lump sum investing against recurring Dollar-Cost Averaging across bull, bear, and volatile market cycles.

Crypto DCA vs lump sum: how the comparison is calculated

The simulator compares two ways of investing the same capital: buying everything at the initial price (lump sum) or splitting it into equal monthly purchases (DCA). The outcome depends on the price path: with €12,000 over 12 months, the lump sum wins in a bull market (+80% vs +29%) and in the default volatile scenario (+20% vs +16.9%), while DCA limits the loss in a bear market (−28.6% vs −50%).

How it is calculated

Lump sum: units = capital ÷ initial price, final value = units × final price. DCA: each month m, from 1 to N, the tool invests capital ÷ N at month m's price; the average cost per unit is capital ÷ units accumulated. The first DCA purchase happens at the month 1 price, not at the initial price.

The three price scenarios

  • Bull: initial price × (1 + 0.8 × m/N), a straight-line +80%.
  • Bear: initial price × (1 − 0.5 × m/N), or −50%.
  • Volatile: initial price × (1 − 0.35 × sin(2π × m/N) + 0.2 × m/N), with a trough around the first quarter of the period, a peak around three quarters and +20% at the end.

Default example

€12,000 over 12 months, i.e. €1,000 a month, with an initial price of €60,000. In the volatile scenario the price falls to €42,000 in month 3, rises to €90,000 in month 9 and ends at €72,000. The lump sum (0.2 unit) is then worth €14,400 (+20%); DCA accumulates 0.19488 unit at an average cost of €61,577 and is worth €14,031 (+16.9%). Bear market: €6,000 (−50%) vs €8,573 (−28.6%, average cost €41,992). Bull market: €21,600 (+80%) vs €15,477 (+29%, average cost €83,736).

Limits

  • The curves are stylized scenarios, not historical prices.
  • Trading fees, spreads and capital gains tax are ignored.
  • Cash waiting to be invested through DCA earns nothing in the calculation.
  • The DCA period ranges from 2 to 36 months.

This is an educational simulation, not investment advice; a crypto-asset can lose most of its value.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is it better to invest in crypto all at once or with DCA?

It depends on the price path. In the simulator, with €12,000 over 12 months, the lump sum wins if the market rises (+80% vs +29%) and DCA reduces the loss if it falls (−28.6% vs −50%). DCA mainly limits the risk of buying at the top, at the cost of a smaller gain in a rally.

How do I calculate my average cost per unit with DCA?

Average cost = total amount invested ÷ number of units accumulated. In the default volatile scenario, €12,000 invested in 12 instalments buys 0.19488 unit, an average cost of €61,577, slightly above the initial price of €60,000.

Why does DCA earn less when the market goes up?

Each purchase buys at a higher price than the one before. In the bull scenario, the DCA average cost reaches €83,736 against €60,000 for the lump sum, so the final value is €15,477 instead of €21,600.

Does a longer DCA period change the result much?

In the volatile scenario, spreading €12,000 over 6, 12, 24 or 36 months gives similar final values, between €13,915 and €14,102, because the curve has the same shape whatever the duration. The tool accepts 2 to 36 months and pays no interest on cash waiting to be invested.

Is this tool really free?

Yes, all tools on Kristools are 100% free and accessible without registration.

Is my data protected?

Yes. All processing is performed directly and securely inside your browser. No personal data is sent to our servers.