Meta Ads Simulator: Break-Even ROAS, Target CPA & Profit

Break-even ROAS and maximum CPA for a Meta Ads campaign

Break-even ROAS = selling price incl. VAT ÷ margin per sale, the margin being worked out on the price excluding VAT (price incl. VAT ÷ 1.2 − cost of goods − shipping and payment fees); below it, every unit of ad spend loses money. The maximum tolerable CPA equals that margin. With a 65 basket incl. VAT (54.17 excl. VAT) and 25 of costs, the margin is 29.17, the break-even ROAS 2.23 and the maximum CPA 29.17.

Step by step

1. Price excl. VAT = price entered incl. VAT ÷ 1.2 (20% VAT); margin per sale = price excl. VAT − cost of goods − shipping and payment fees.
2. Break-even ROAS = price incl. VAT ÷ margin, since Meta measures ROAS on revenue incl. VAT; maximum CPA = margin.
3. Funnel: impressions = budget ÷ CPM × 1,000; clicks = impressions × CTR; orders = clicks × conversion rate, rounded to a whole number.
4. Projected ROAS = orders × price ÷ budget; CPA = budget ÷ orders; net profit = revenue excl. VAT − budget − orders × (cost of goods + fees).

Example (default values)

Budget 1,500, CPM 14, CTR 1.8%, conversion 2.5%, basket 65, cost of goods 20, fees 5. Margin: 29.17 (53.8% of the price excl. VAT), break-even ROAS 2.23. The funnel gives 107,143 impressions, 1,929 clicks (CPC 0.78) and 48 orders, i.e. 3,120 of revenue incl. VAT (2,600 excl. VAT). Projected ROAS: 2.08, below break-even; CPA 31.3, net loss of 100 (−3.8% of revenue excl. VAT). Raising conversion to 3.5% gives 68 orders, a ROAS of 2.95 and 483 of profit.

Limits

• VAT: the tool removes the French standard 20% VAT from the price, whatever the language. With another rate (19% in Germany, 21% in Spain) or no VAT to pay over, as with US sales tax, the real margin differs.
• CPM, CTR and conversion rate are your assumptions: the defaults are examples, not market averages.
• Amounts are shown in euros in every language.

An indicative simulation: it does not replace advice from an adviser or your accounting figures.

Sources and dates: standard French VAT rate of 20% in mainland France, applicable since 1 January 2014 (amending finance act for 2012, BOFiP TVA-LIQ). The default campaign settings are indicative, unverified values (checked 14/10/2026).

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I calculate break-even ROAS?

Divide the selling price incl. VAT by the margin earned on one sale, worked out on the price excluding VAT after cost of goods and fees. For a product sold at 65 incl. VAT (54.17 excl. VAT) with 25 of costs, the margin is 29.17 and break-even ROAS is 65 ÷ 29.17 = 2.23: you need at least 2.23 of sales incl. VAT per unit of ad spend.

What is the highest CPA I can afford on Facebook and Instagram?

At break-even, cost per acquisition can reach the margin per sale before advertising. With a 29.17 margin, a CPA of 25 leaves 4.17 profit per order; above 29.17, every sale loses money, as with the 31.25 CPA of the default example.

Should I enter the price including or excluding VAT?

Enter the price including VAT, the one the customer pays: the tool removes the 20% French standard VAT before working out the margin. At 65 incl. VAT it uses 54.17 excl. VAT, a 29.17 margin and a break-even ROAS of 2.23. The rate cannot be changed; with another rate, the result is approximate.

How does the simulator estimate the number of sales?

It turns the budget into impressions with the CPM, then into clicks with the CTR and into orders with the conversion rate. With 1,500, a CPM of 14, a 1.8% CTR and 2.5% conversion, you get 107,143 impressions, 1,929 clicks and 48 orders.

Is this tool really free?

Yes, all tools on Kristools are 100% free and accessible without registration.

Is my data protected?

Yes. All processing is performed directly and securely inside your browser. No personal data is sent to our servers.